Most of the projects of the Knowledge Centre of Housing Economics result in Danish language reports. However, a limited number of our publications are available in English. These can be found here.
Understanding the Role of Private Renting
Researchers from the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research, London School of Economics and Political Science, TU Delft, Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft and Copenhagen Business School have conducted a joint study of developments in the private rented housing sectors within The UK, The Netherlands, Germany and Denmark. Special attention has been put towards uncovering the relative user costs of renting and owning in each of the countries involved.
A Disaggregated approach to understanding the connection between transactions and house prices
This paper by head of secretariat, Curt Liliegreen, presents a preliminary sketch of a model for the housing market. Supply and demand relations are formulated for different subgroups, including first time buyers and repeat buyers. As repeat buyers carry out the majority of transactions on the housing market, the personal finances of this group in the form of income, assets and budget constraints play a key role in a model that focuses on actual trades. The personal wealth of a repeat buyer depends greatly on the home equity he can achieve from his existing home. By looking at the home equity for repeat buyers, the paper includes an element where rising house prices can stimulate housing demand. The paper has been presented at the Eurpean Network for Housing and Planning Research conference in Edinburgh in july 2014.
The German Private Rented Sector
Jonathan Fizsimons of The Knowledge Centre for Housing Economics has conducted a study of the German housing market, focusing on the private rented sector. In this working paper you will find a treatment of German rent regulation and the unique "Mietspiegel" (rent mirror) approach to rent regulation.
Conference papers in relation to Modeling Household Formation and Housing Demand in Denmark
At the 4th General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association, the DREAM Group (The institution behind the Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, a major Danish macroeconomics model) presented a line of papers on the specifics of the SMILE model for forecasting of demography, education level, socioeconomic characteristics and housing demand, which was developed as part of a project with the Knowledge Centre for Housing Economics. These papers outline the use of the model for forecasting of demographic specific housing demand as well of the details of how the labour market is modelled, how conditional inference trees are used for partitioning data in order to avoid the problem of overparameterization and how agents in the model are matched to create new couples.
The Dutch Private Rented Sector
Jonathan Fizsimons of The Knowledge Centre for Housing Economics has conducted a study of the Dutch housing market, focusing on the private rented sector. In this working paper you will find a treatment of Dutch rent regulation and the unique points system which is used to determine whether a lease is covered by regulation or the rent can be set on market terms.
Modeling Household Formation and Housing Demand in Denmark
The DREAM Group (The institution behind the Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, a major Danish macroeconomics model) has developed a micro simulation model for forecasting Danish housing demand on behalf of The Knowledge Centre for Housing Economics. The idea is for the model to be a valuable tool for policy makers and housing developers alike and provide the foundations for at strenghtening of the DREAM network of models.
The model consists of two modules: A demographics module which produces forecasts of household structure by geographic region, sex, age, descent, education, socioeconomic status, marital status and number of children. This is used as input to the housing module, which describes housing demand by geographic location (region, town size), ownership of housing, type of structure, house size and age of structure.
The modeling is to a large extent carried out on an empirical basis, using the new CTREE (Conditional Inference Tree) algorithm to enable efficient partitioning of data.
The model has been documented in a report, which has been published by the Knowledge Center for Housing Economics, along with some resulting forecasts.
Danish ‘expectations for the housing market
The Knowledge Centre collaborates with Statistics Denmark in surveying public expectations in regards to the Danish housing market on a regular basis. In these surveys, respondents are asked for their expectations regarding house prices one and five years in the future in addition with the causes for these expectations.
A summary of the results from the first nine surveys exhibits a large degree of stability in what factors affect house price expectations.
Furthermore, a survey of public sentiment in regards to banks allegedly having manipulated the Copenhagen Interbank Offered Rate is included.
The Private Rented Sector in the New Century
The Knowledge Centre has sponsored an analysis of regulation of private rented housing across 11 Western European countries which has been carried out by the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research (CCHPR) at the University of Cambridge in conjunction with researchers at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
One purpose of the report is to inform the debate around regulation of private rented housing by placing the Danish regulatory framework in an international context.
Another purpose is to gain an overview of shifts in the structure of regulation and look at the impact of regulation on the size of the private rented sector.
The report concludes that other factors such as the structuring of taxes and the prevalence of other types of housing plays a larger role in determining the size of the sector than regulation does.
SBAM: An Algorithm for Pair Matching
The Knowledge Center is in the process of acquiring a broad range of forecasts of the structure of the Danish housing market from the group behind the DREAM model. The Centre also wishes to contribute towards the quality of economic forecasts by eventually facilitating the inclusion of a model for housing demand in the DREAM framework.
As a means to these goals the DREAM Group has developed an algorithm of pair matching for use in micro simulation of family patterns. The algorithm is introduced in a paper by Peter Stephensen, head of research at the DREAM Group.